Research
Peer-Reviewed Publications
Social Segregation and Discriminatory Policing (with Ryan Hübert). Forthcoming, Political Science Research and Methods
Guilt and Guilty Pleas (with Hannah Simpson). Forthcoming, American Political Science Review.
Communication, Coordination, and Surveillance in the Shadow of Repression (with Tak-Huen Chau and Mai Hassan). Forthcoming, American Journal of Political Science
Measuring Democratic Backsliding (with Anne Meng). 2024. Lead article in a special issue in PS: Political Science and Politics
- Coverage in The Washington Post, The Progress Network, The Interpreter (New York Times), Salon, The Economist, Morgenbladet, Folha de S. Paulo, Estadao, Positive News, The Progress Network, Democracy Digest, Real Clear Science, Ufuhamu Africa, Not Another Politics Podcast, The Good Fight, The Politics Lab
Stronger Challengers can Cause More (or Less) Conflict and Institutional Reform (with Jack Paine). 2024. Comparative Political Studies.
Bayesian Explanations for Persuasion. 2023. Journal of Theoretical Politics
A Behavioral Theory of Discrimination in Policing (with Ryan Hübert). 2023. Economic Journal.
Motivated Reasoning and Democratic Accountability (with Keith Schnakenberg and Ian Turner). 2022. American Political Science Review.
Kompromat can Align Incentives but Ruin Reputations (with Ryan Hübert). 2022. American Journal of Political Science.
Learning from Biased Research Designs (with Thomas Pepinsky). 2021. Journal of Politics.
I Don’t Know (with Matthew Backus).2020. American Political Science Review.
The Distortion of Related Beliefs. 2019. American Journal of Political Science.
Political Corruption Traps (with Marko Klašnja and Joshua Tucker). 2017. Political Science Research and Methods.
A Bargaining Theory of Conflict with Evolutionary Preferences (with Thomas Zeitzoff). 2017. International Organization.
The Political Violence Cycle (with S.P. Harish). 2017. American Political Science Review.
– Supplemental Information
– Replication Materials
Propaganda and Credulity. 2017. Games and Economic Behavior.
– Supplemental Information
– Coverage in The Boston Globe, Reason
Are Non-competitive Elections Good for Citizens? 2017. Journal of Theoretical Politics.
Coordination, Learning, and Coups. 2017. Journal of Conflict Resolution. – Replication Materials
Communication Technology and Protest. 2016. Journal of Politics. – Supplemental Information
– Coverage in Duck of Minerva
Elections, Protest, and Alternation of Power (with Joshua Tucker and Tom LaGatta). 2015. Journal of Politics.
Fraud and Monitoring in Noncompetitive Elections. 2015. Political Science Research and Methods. – Supplemental Information
– Coverage in The Monkey Cage
Elections, Fraud, and Election Monitoring in the Shadow of Revolution. 2012. Quarterly Journal of Political Science.
Other Publications
What We Do and Don’t Know About Democratic Backsliding (with Anne Meng). 2024. PS: Political Science and Politics
Selection Neglect and Political Beliefs. (with Matthew Brundage and Soosun You) 2024. Annual Review of Political Science
Fake News, Propaganda, and Lies Can Be Pervasive Even If They Aren’t Persuasive. 2018. Comparative Politics Newsletter.
Simple and Formal Models in Comparative Politics (with Thomas Pepinsky). 2016. Chinese Political Science Review.
Working Papers
Information Theory and Biased Beliefs
Biased Learning from Elections (with Thomas Pepinsky and Andrew Mack)
Assumptions, Models, and Overprecision (with Ned Augenblick, Matthew Backus, and Don Moore)
Limits on Learning: Selective Incorporation and Retention of Political Information (with Melina Platas and Pia Raffler)
Global Patterns of Presidential Election Concessions (with Anne Meng)
Information Order, Memory, and Partisan Motivated Reasoning (with Salvatore Nunnari)
Resting Papers
Unbelievable Lies (with Sherif Nasser).
Constraints on Thinking Cause Overprecision (with Matthew Backus and Don Moore.)