Research
Peer-Reviewed Publications
Bayesian Explanations for Persuasion. Forthcoming, Journal of Theoretical Politics
A Behavioral Theory of Discrimination in Policing (with Ryan Hübert). Forthcoming, Economic Journal.
Stronger Challengers can Cause More (or Less) Conflict and Institutional Reform (with Jack Paine). Forthcoming, Comparative Political Studies
Motivated Reasoning and Democratic Accountability (with Keith Schnakenberg and Ian Turner). 2022. American Political Science Review, 116(2), 751–767
Kompromat can Align Incentives but Ruin Reputations (with Ryan Hübert). Forthcoming, American Journal of Political Science.
Learning from Biased Research Designs (with Thomas Pepinsky) Journal of Politics, 83(2), 602-616.
I Don’t Know (with Matthew Backus).2020. American Political Science Review. 113(3), 724-743.
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The Distortion of Related Beliefs. 2019. American Journal of Political Science. 63(3), 675-689.
Political Corruption Traps (with Marko Klašnja and Joshua Tucker). 2017. Political Science Research and Methods, Vol 6, No 3, 413-428.
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A Bargaining Theory of Conflict with Evolutionary Preferences (with Thomas Zeitzoff). 2017. International Organization, Vol 71, No 3, 523-557.
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The Political Violence Cycle (with S.P. Harish). 2017. American Political Science Review, Vol 111, No 2, 237-255.
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– Replication Materials
Propaganda and Credulity. 2017. Games and Economic Behavior, 102, 224-232.
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– Coverage in The Boston Globe, Reason
Are Non-competitive Elections Good for Citizens? 2017. Journal of Theoretical Politics. Vol 29, No 2, 214-242.
Coordination, Learning, and Coups. 2017. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol 61, No 1, 204-234.
– Replication Materials
Communication Technology and Protest. 2016. Journal of Politics, Vol 78, No 1, 152-166.
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– Coverage in Duck of Minerva
Elections, Protest, and Alternation of Power (with Joshua Tucker and Tom LaGatta). 2015. Journal of Politics, Vol 77, No 4, 1142-1156.
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Fraud and Monitoring in Noncompetitive Elections. 2015. Political Science Research and Methods, Vol 3, No 1, 21-41.
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– Coverage in The Monkey Cage
Elections, Fraud, and Election Monitoring in the Shadow of Revolution. 2012. Quarterly Journal of Political Science, Vol 7, No 4, pp 249-283.
Other Publications
Fake News, Propaganda, and Lies Can Be Pervasive Even If They Aren’t Persuasive. 2018. Comparative Politics Newsletter, 28(2), 49–55.
Simple and Formal Models in Comparative Politics (with Thomas Pepinsky). 2016. Chinese Political Science Review. Vol 1, No 3, 425-447. (Editor Invited)
Working Papers
Subjective and Objective Measurement of Democratic Backsliding (with Anne Meng)
- Coverage in The Washington Post, The Progress Network, The Interpreter (New York Times), Morgenbladet, Folha de S. Paulo, Positive News Ufuhamu Africa, Not Another Politics Podcast
Selection Neglect and Political Beliefs (with Matthew Brundage and Soosun You) Invited Submission, Annual Review of Political Science
Constraints on Thinking Cause Overprecision (with Matthew Backus and Don Moore.)
Social Segregation and Discriminatory Policing (with Ryan Hübert)
Biased Learning from Elections (with Thomas Pepinsky and Andrew Mack)
Who Pleads Guility? (with Hannah Simpson)
Resting Papers
Unbelievable Lies (with Sherif Nasser).