Peer-Reviewed Publications

Measuring Democratic Backsliding (with Anne Meng). Lead article in a special issue in PS: Political Science and Politics

Bayesian Explanations for Persuasion. Forthcoming, Journal of Theoretical Politics

A Behavioral Theory of Discrimination in Policing (with Ryan Hübert). Forthcoming, Economic Journal.

Stronger Challengers can Cause More (or Less) Conflict and Institutional Reform (with Jack Paine). Forthcoming, Comparative Political Studies

Motivated Reasoning and Democratic Accountability (with Keith Schnakenberg and Ian Turner). 2022. American Political Science Review, 116(2), 751–767

Kompromat can Align Incentives but Ruin Reputations (with Ryan Hübert). 2022. American Journal of Political Science, 66(4).

Learning from Biased Research Designs (with Thomas Pepinsky). 2021. Journal of Politics, 83(2), 602-616.

I Don’t Know (with Matthew Backus).2020. American Political Science Review. 113(3), 724-743.
Supplemental Information

The Distortion of Related Beliefs. 2019. American Journal of Political Science. 63(3), 675-689.

Political Corruption Traps (with Marko Klašnja and Joshua Tucker). 2017. Political Science Research and Methods, Vol 6, No 3, 413-428.
Supplemental Information

A Bargaining Theory of Conflict with Evolutionary Preferences (with Thomas Zeitzoff). 2017. International Organization, Vol 71, No 3, 523-557.
Supplemental Information

The Political Violence Cycle (with S.P. Harish). 2017. American Political Science Review, Vol 111, No 2, 237-255.
Supplemental Information
Replication Materials

Propaganda and Credulity. 2017. Games and Economic Behavior, 102, 224-232.
Supplemental Information
– Coverage in The Boston Globe, Reason

Are Non-competitive Elections Good for Citizens? 2017. Journal of Theoretical Politics. Vol 29, No 2, 214-242.

Coordination, Learning, and Coups. 2017. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol 61, No 1, 204-234.
Replication Materials

Communication Technology and Protest. 2016. Journal of Politics, Vol 78, No 1, 152-166.
Supplemental Information
– Coverage in Duck of Minerva

Elections, Protest, and Alternation of Power (with Joshua Tucker and Tom LaGatta). 2015. Journal of Politics, Vol 77, No 4, 1142-1156.
Supplemental Information

Fraud and Monitoring in Noncompetitive Elections. 2015. Political Science Research and Methods, Vol 3, No 1, 21-41.
Supplemental Information
– Coverage in The Monkey Cage

Elections, Fraud, and Election Monitoring in the Shadow of Revolution. 2012. Quarterly Journal of Political Science, Vol 7, No 4, pp 249-283.

Other Publications

What We Do and Don’t Know About Democratic Backsliding (with Anne Meng). Forthcoming, PS: Political Science and Politics

Selection Neglect and Political Beliefs. (with Matthew Brundage and Soosun You) Forthcoming, Annual Review of Political Science

Fake News, Propaganda, and Lies Can Be Pervasive Even If They Aren’t Persuasive. 2018. Comparative Politics Newsletter, 28(2), 49–55.

Simple and Formal Models in Comparative Politics (with Thomas Pepinsky). 2016. Chinese Political Science Review. Vol 1, No 3, 425-447. (Editor Invited)

Working Papers

Guilt and Guilty Pleas (with Hannah Simpson). Revise and Resubmit, American Political Science Review

Communication and Coordination in the Shadow of Repression (with Tak-Huen Chau and Mai Hassan). Revise and Resubmit, American Journal of Political Science

Detecting Motivated Reasoning

Information Theory and Biased Beliefs

Social Segregation and Discriminatory Policing (with Ryan Hübert)

Biased Learning from Elections (with Thomas Pepinsky and Andrew Mack)

Assumptions, Models, and Overprecision (with Ned Augenblick, Matthew Backus, and Don Moore)

Limits on Learning: Selective Incorporation and Retention of Political Information (with Melina Platas and Pia Raffler)

Resting Papers

Unbelievable Lies (with Sherif Nasser).

Which Costly Signal to Send?

Constraints on Thinking Cause Overprecision (with Matthew Backus and Don Moore.)